Centene's Guidance Withdrawal Spooks Sector, Oscar Health Stock Falls

Oscar Health, Inc. (NYSE:OSCR) stock is trading lower on Wednesday, in reaction to Centene Corp.’s (NYSE:CNC) decision to withdraw its 2025 earnings guidance.

This move by Centene has raised concerns across the health insurance sector, particularly regarding the individual Health Insurance Marketplace.

Centene’s withdrawal of its 2025 GAAP and adjusted diluted EPS guidance stems from its initial review of 2025 industry data from Wakely, an independent actuarial firm.

Also Read: Centene Withdraws 2025 Guidance, Shares Dive

This data, covering 22 of Centene’s 29 Marketplace states and representing approximately 72% of their Marketplace membership, revealed two critical issues.

Firstly, overall market growth in these states is proving to be lower than anticipated. Secondly, and more significantly, the implied aggregate market morbidity, or the prevalence of illness, in these states is substantially higher than Centene’s original assumptions for risk adjustment revenue transfer.

This discrepancy has ...